EV Market - Poised for a Solid-state Revolution
The best way to get a sense of the electric vehicle (EV) market is to look at Tesla. Combined sales of Model 3 and Model Y reached 461,538 globally in Q4, a 19% increase from the same period in 2022. This confirms their continued dominance as Tesla's top sellers. Sales of "Other Models," which primarily includes the Model S and X along with some early deliveries of the Cybertruck, saw a 34% increase to 22,969 units.
Quarterly vehicle QTR deliveries for 2023:
422,875
466,140 (record high)
435,059
484,477
Quarterly vehicle QTR inventory summary for 2023:
Inventory levels were relatively low, indicating strong demand and quick sales.
Inventory showed a slight increase, potentially due to production ramp-up for new models.
Inventory levels dipped again, suggesting continued high demand and efficient sales.
Inventory saw a notable rise, particularly in September, leading to some speculation about potential challenges or adjustments in demand or production.
Although Tesla did implement cost reductions on some models in 2023, the reasoning behind these decisions is generally considered to be as follows:
Concerns about slowing consumer spending - Tesla, like many companies, faced concerns about a potential economic slowdown in 2023. Price cuts aimed to boost demand and maintain sales momentum even in a potentially less favorable economic climate.
Competition - The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly crowded, with established automakers and startups offering new EV models. Tesla likely used price reductions to stay competitive and attract buyers in this growing market.
Missed delivery goals - Tesla missed its delivery targets in Q3 2023, partly due to factory upgrades. The price cuts in Q4 were seen as an attempt to catch up on delivery goals and achieve its ambitious annual target which it did.
The data implies the Tesla EV market is healthy and the assumption is the market as a whole is healthy.
Although the market is healthy, the belief is shoppers are hesitant about purchasing an EV because of range anxiety and the hassles associated with recharging. Using Tesla as an example, the following is the published EPA range of their models.
Range per charge by model
Model S Long Range: 405 miles
Model S Plaid: 348 miles
Model 3 Standard Range: 272 miles
Model 3 Long Range: 358 miles
Model X Plaid: 326 miles
Model Y Standard Range: 244 miles
Model Y Long Range: 310 miles
For comparison, I own a Honda CR-V which holds 14 gallons of gas. At 30 miles per gallon that gives me a range of 420 miles per tank of gas.
Again, for comparison, to fill the tank of my Honda CR-V from empty is about 10 minutes or less.
To recharge a Tesla at a Supercharger depends on the charger and the model. Smaller batteries or batteries with a lower starting charge level will recharge faster than larger batteries or those nearly full. V2 Superchargers offer up to 120 kW of power, while the newer V3 Superchargers can deliver up to 250 kW. Colder temperatures may slow the charging rate.
With that information in mind and using a V3 supercharger, 15 minutes will add up to 200 miles of range on most Tesla models and 30 minutes will get close to a full charge. It is also important to consider gas stations are very prevalent and finding a Supercharger may require some help.
The goal of EV manufacturers in 2024 and beyond is to offer an electric alternative which meets or exceeds the experience of a comparable gas vehicle. That is to say a range per charge of 500+ miles and a recharging time of 10 to 15 minutes or less.
Note
Another anxiety not spoken of very often is the cost of ownership. If the battery pack has to be replaced, the cost is substantial.
The battery used to power much of our technology today is lithium-ion. A lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery is a rechargeable battery that uses the movement of lithium ions (Li+) between two electrodes to store and release energy. The liquid used in a lithium-ion battery is called the electrolyte and it plays a crucial role in its operation by enabling the movement of lithium ions (Li+) between the anode and cathode, allowing for charging and discharging.
You may have noticed packages which contain a device which has a lithium-ion battery are marked as such to alert the handler. The reason for this is some electrolytes are flammable, posing a potential safety risk in case of overheating or battery damage. There is also the risk that leaks will damage the battery and surrounding electronics, and potentially present health hazards.
Although the risk of battery issues is very low, there have been reports of incidents resulting in fires.
In the simplest of terms, it is a battery which does not use a liquid or gel to facilitate the transfer of electrons and improves on and fixes the issues with lithium-ion batteries.
Compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries offer several advantages making them a promising technology for energy storage.
By eliminating flammable liquids, the solid electrolytes remove the risk of fire or explosion caused by leaks or overheating. This significantly improves safety in applications like electric vehicles and aircraft.
Solid-state batteries perform better at extreme temperatures, reducing the risk of thermal runaway, which is a chain reaction that can lead to battery fires. Solid electrolytes also prevent the formation of dendrites, the needle-like lithium structures that can pierce the battery separator and cause short circuits.
Solid-state batteries pack more energy per unit volume and weight compared to lithium-ion batteries, potentially enabling smaller and lighter batteries for the same energy capacity. This is particularly advantageous for electric vehicles, leading to longer driving ranges. Solid-state batteries also experience less internal resistance, leading to more efficient energy transfer and less wasted heat.
Solid-state batteries can be charged much faster than lithium-ion batteries, potentially taking only minutes for a full charge. This significantly improves convenience and practicality, especially for electric vehicles. The faster charging capability also reduces stress on the battery with the potential to extend its lifespan.
It's important to remember that solid-state battery technology is still under development and claims made by manufacturers will need to be validated in real world conditions.
For example, Tesla's 4680 battery cells were unable to deliver the expected range improvements for the just-released Cybertruck. The 4680 cells, produced in-house, aim to provide advantages in power density, energy density, and capacity compared to the previous battery system.
However, the first-generation 4680 cells used in the Austin-built Model Y vehicles fell short of targets. Similarly, second-generation 4680 cells could not achieve the 500-mile (800-kilometer) maximum range initially advertised for Cybertruck. Instead, range estimates have been revised down 32% to 340 miles (545 km). Tesla continues research to enhance 4680 cell chemistry and manufacturing processes with the goal of increasing energy density by 10–20%. I expect improvements to come quickly from Tesla, but 20% will only move the needle to 408 miles.
Tesla’s recent troubles have created an opening for other automakers to step in. For example, Chinese automaker NIO recently demonstrated a 150-kWh battery in its ET7 sedan, which can travel over 600 miles on a single charge and has a shorter recharge time.
According to Car News China, a Chinese media outlet, WeLion will deliver the first batch of solid-state batteries with 150 kWh capacity in April of 2024 to Nio.
QuantumScape, a US startup, just finished initial testing of their solid state design by VolksWagen. Commenting on the test results, Jagdeep Singh, Founder & CEO of QuantumScape, said: "These results from the Volkswagen Group’s PowerCo testing make clear that QuantumScape’s anodeless solid-state lithium-metal cells are capable of exceptional performance. While we have more work to do to bring this technology to market, we are not aware of any other automotive-format lithium-metal battery that has shown such high discharge energy retention over a comparable cycle count under similar conditions. We’re excited to be working closely with the Volkswagen Group and PowerCo to industrialize this technology and bring it to market as quickly as possible."
Realizing the magnitude of the impact solid-state batteries will have on everything currently served by lithium-ion, I have little doubt products will begin to trickle in sooner rather than later.
Some individuals have been documenting their road trips with their Tesla’s, and my main take-away is the requirement to plan the trip carefully around available charging stations. Preferably, V3 fast chargers. This reminds me of the days when diesel cars and light duty trucks were first introduced and having to hunt for gas stations, which also sold diesel. The point is, the charging station route may not be the way you want to go, or it may not be the most direct route, thus adding to the cost and time of the trip. Increasing the range of electric vehicles will provide more recharging options and a more enjoyable experience.
